Where Pérez Country Email List reached the highest number of votes5, and a post-election quantitative analysis confirms that around 60% of Pérez's votes in the first round became Country Email List invalid in the second6. To understand this result, it is necessary to return to the interpretive framework. The reasonable Country Email List expectation was to suppose that the votes that went to Pérez in the first round would be distributed, in majority, between Arauz and the null vote in the second round.
Saying that Country Email List is not the same as saying that no one who had voted for Pérez was going to vote for Lasso: the conceptual model admitted that a good number of Pérez voters would vote for Lasso. It was quite probable, for example, that the voters of Pérez de la Sierra Country Email List Centro would lean more towards Lasso and the null vote than towards Arauz. That is, in fact, the inertia of those territories in the last decade. It is noteworthy Country Email List that in the 2013-2017 comparison, that is, between Lasso's first and second participation as a presidential candidate, where his support grew the most was precisely in those indigenous territories.
In 2021, Lasso Country Email List fell back in all those provinces, but not because Correismo regained ground, but because Pérez was an electoral alternative. In the absence of Pérez on the ballot for the ballot, where would a good part of those votes go? The conceptual model allowed Country Email List them to go to Lasso. But –we underline– the general trend assumed was that the votes went to Arauz or null, given what we know Country Email List about the internal composition of Pérez's votes in the first round (more than a fifth of them came from Quito and the province of Azuay), and, above all, given the informed intuitions we had in this regard.
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